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Semiconductor sector valuation and AI disruption risk

Goldman Sachs analysis of semiconductor sector crowding, elevated put skew, and market positioning amid concerns of AI disruption-driven pullback in semiconductor equities.

3 posts · First seen 2026-02-23 · Last activity 2026-02-23
TimeAuthorPost
2026-02-23T21:14 @stevehou @kylascan Bc AI hardware value chain stocks all still went up ↩ reply parent
2026-02-23T21:06 @charleswangb Hardly can one find a natural hedge without expensive puts better than emerging AI factories like NBIS: 1. If China takes Taiwan, whoever has GPUs on hand will instantly double their value—neither memory nor photonics components can do this. 2. Against AI disruption: being the substrate at the most fundamental tier. 3. Against the dystopian case of "frontier model companies eat the world": standing up OSS AI models and building custom models for enterprises and AI-native startup ecosystems. Ecosystems beat products.
2026-02-23T18:54 @Mayhem4Markets "Semis & Semi Equip has been by far the most net bought subsector on our PB pad YTD – if AI disruption continues to cause investors to take down risk, we think Semis looks extremely crowded. With 1-month 5d/25d put skew looking highly elevated, we also like put spreads in SMH to play for a more targeted pull back". Via Goldman Sachs
@stevehou 2026-02-23T21:14
@kylascan Bc AI hardware value chain stocks all still went up
↩ reply parent
@charleswangb 2026-02-23T21:06
Hardly can one find a natural hedge without expensive puts better than emerging AI factories like NBIS: 1. If China takes Taiwan, whoever has GPUs on hand will instantly double their value—neither memory nor photonics components can do this. 2. Against AI disruption: being the substrate at the most fundamental tier. 3. Against the dystopian case of "frontier model companies eat the world": stan...
@Mayhem4Markets 2026-02-23T18:54
"Semis & Semi Equip has been by far the most net bought subsector on our PB pad YTD – if AI disruption continues to cause investors to take down risk, we think Semis looks extremely crowded. With 1-month 5d/25d put skew looking highly elevated, we also like put spreads in SMH to play for a more targeted pull back". Via Goldman Sachs

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